Vision 2057 Now?

We have not even reached 2010, let alone 2020, and yet the Prime Minister Pak Lah is already looking at 50 years ahead. Bravo Pak Lah! You are such a visionary. It is good to be a visionary. Dr Mahathir, our 4th PM was a visionary when he was PM. After all, didn’t he craft Vision 2020 in 1991? That was 30 years ahead of the target date. Pak Lah, as if to outdo Dr Mahathir, has now come up with ‘Vision 2057.’

For the next 50 years, the PM will be planning for his children, grandchildren and great grandchildren! I say that’s quite an ambition Mr. Prime Minister. I have never come across this kind of long-range planning in development economics textbooks during my university days. So, is Pak Lah thinking of establishing a Badawi dynasty?

I salute Pak Lah for his fortitude in proposing this 50-year plan. Of course we should be looking at 50 years from now and imagine what it will be like. Most of us won’t be around then—especially those above 50 now. Even some people below 50 will not be around as they would have died on our highways! Other killers include cancer, heart ailments, etc.

Yes, what will Malaysia be like 50 years from now? What will be Malaysia’s population then? Using compound interest formula, and assuming a constant population growth rate of 2.5% per annum, our population will be about 92.4 million then. Wow! That would be 3.4 times the present population of 26.9 million (March 2007 estimate by Wikepedia). Tun Mahathir would be the happiest man then because his vision of 70 million people would have been overshot by 22.4 million. The Tun would be 132 years old then!

Will we have the natural resources to support this kind of population? Do we still have forests in Malaysia in 2057? That depends on our children and grandchildren who will inherit the earth. Will they conserve our natural resources the way we plan for them? This brings the question of whether it is realistic to make a 50-year plan for the future generation. Who knows what they need when most of us are no longer around? Do we know better than them?

In economic planning, economists seldom go beyond 25 years. Why? It is simply because the “present value” (PV) of a ringgit gets to be so miniscule beyond twenty-five years. Therefore projects are appraised only for a period of no more than 30 years. Beyond that, it does not make much difference to the PV.

More importantly, it is far-fetched to plan for Vision 2057 when we are struggling with Vision 2020. Do we have the pre-conditions to achieve vision 2020? I am not just referring to the physical conditions, but more importantly the human aspects as well. Are we a good model of a democratic country that values differences of opinions, that has religious tolerance, integrity and uphold fair-play in the distribution of justice and wealth?

Should we plan for 2057 when we are still struggling with the fight against corruption within our society? It is doubtful whether we can achieve Vision 2020 at the rate we are progressing in this battle against this scourge of the nation.

How about the dadah (illicit drug) menace? How about the Mat Rempit phenomenon? Are we making good progress in these two areas of social ills to be able to achieve Vision 2020? How can we solve the problem by making them jump at the North Pole?

Selangor is supposed to be a developed state two years ago (2005). Then, how come we suddenly find that Ijok is still backward? So much so, RM36 million has been promised to develop Ijok during this by-election (to be held on April 28).

Dream by all means. But be realistic and let your feet be firmly planted to the ground. We don’t live forever, so let the future generation have a role to shape their future.